The Portuguese national team is reigning European champion, newly-crowned Nations League winner and number six in the FIFA World Ranking. However, all of these past achievements do not automatically lead Fernando Santos’ team to definitely have the chance to defend their title at the European Championship finals in the coming year. As of now, Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. still have to tremble to attend.
However, the good news ahead of the two remaining qualifying matches is the fact that the Seleção Quinas still hold second place in Group B in their own hands. Two threes are enough to get behind the Ukraine the right to start the EURO next summer. On Thursday, the first compulsory victory must be retracted. There should be no doubt about this between Portugal and Lithuania – according to bookmakers’ odds.
Admittedly, the southern Europeans have played a disappointing qualification so far. Only three of the six matches completed, the European champion could decide for themselves. If you remained unbeaten on the first five matchdays, then this series ended with a 1: 2 defeat in October in Ukraine. Since then, it is clear that the Santos-Elf may not allow another slip-up, unless you still want to fall back on third place.
Given the fact that the upcoming Baltic opponent lost six of the seven games in qualifying and only scored a point against Luxembourg at home, we do not need to be a prophet to predict between Portugal and Lithuania that anything but a high home victory would amount to a surprise.
Because the home side did not convince us and CR7 is not in its absolute top condition, we would want to commit to a maximum of four hits of the favorite. The kick-off at the Estadio Algarve in Faro takes place on Thursday evening at 19:45.
Portugal:
It would certainly be one of the sensations of recent football history. A European Championship without the defending champion. Of course, it is not yet so far, but a certain residual risk that the Portuguese will not be represented in the 24-strong main draw of the European Championship finals in the coming year, there is definitely.
If the world’s sixth on Thursday at home unexpectedly lie against Lithuania or Sunday in Luxembourg and win the direct competitor from Serbia, however, twice, the team of Fernando Santos would have to take third place in Group B to make do.
This would mean that the elected in the summer Nations League champion has to go through the disagreeable playoffs. Since threatening in the final tournament, inter alia, encounters with Switzerland, Iceland, Romania or Israel, the successful qualification would not be a self-run again. All the more the “Selecao das Quinas” will endeavor to close the bag with two threes at the end of the group stage.
In the duel on Thursday evening between Portugal and Lithuania, the odds of the bookmakers illustrate the huge favorite role in favor of the home side. However, the fact that the Portuguese are allowed to compete in front of a home crowd does not seem to be as much of an advantage as one might have expected.
From the previous three home games in the European Championship qualifiers brought Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. namely only five points. Two miserable draws against Ukraine (0-0) and Serbia (1-1) were followed by a 3-0 victory against Luxembourg, but two of the three goals came late in the second half. These results in front of our own fans prompt us to push for a home victory between Portugal and Lithuania, although not more than four goals should fall.
In general, offensive output has not been very profitable so far. The Portuguese drive a lot of opportunities and can once again thank their superstar CR7, who was able to credit half of the 14 goals to his account. But watch out: once you exclude the five goals from the first leg in Lithuania (four in the second half), it becomes clear that the European champions are having a hard time netting against defensive teams.
To make matters worse, Coach Santos, who has always been an advocate of the structural game, must renounce, among others, the two attackers Joao Felix and Goncalo Guedes. Andre Gomes, Joao Mario and Nelson Semedo are also unavailable due to injuries. Accordingly, five changes from the October 2-1 defeat in Ukraine are definitely inevitable.
Lithuania:
While in the recent past we were happy to report on football exotics that are developing positively, the curve of the Lithuanian national team tends to point in the opposite direction.
Already in the previous year, the Baltic in the third division of the League of Nations in a group with Serbia, Romania and Montenegro came under a lot of the wheels. All six games were lost. The Lithuanians get only three own hits, while 16 times had to get the ball out of its own network. The descent into Division D could not be prevented.
Also in the European Championship qualification, the negative run continued unrestricted. Of the seven games played, the nation, which slipped into the world rankings in 132nd place and thus behind Sudan, Barbuda or Tajikistan, brought only a single point at home against Luxembourg. In each of the other six matches, they lost out. With five goals and 19 offenses, the Northern Europeans also provide the most innocuous attack and the most vulnerable defensive.
Nevertheless, there is hope for improvement, because in the two October games, the team of coach Valdas Urbonas, who has been in office since February this year, two significantly improved appearances. In the undisputed leader from Ukraine, the Underdog lost only 0-2, three days later it was after 90 minutes at home against Serbia 1: 2.
These performances are, in our opinion, a plausible argument for once again hinting between Portugal and Lithuania that the guests are not completely exhausted, but that they can at least keep up with the results. We are not talking about a sensational point win, instead of a defeat with no more than four conceded goals.
