Penarol – The Strongest Prediction & Picks (17.05.2018)

Peñarol and The Strongest meet at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, in a match for this phase of the Copa Libertadores (Group Stage). In this game the home factor may be decisive, since both teams present considerable differences in the results achieved at home and as a visitor.

Peñarol:

The home team is currently in the 3 rd position, with 6 points won, after 2 wins and 3 losses. In the penultimate match, they won in a home match against Libertad, by (2-0). In the last match, they lost in an away match against Atlético Tucumán, by (1-0). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses in away matches, with 24 goals scored and 13 conceded; against 12 wins and 3 draws in their stadium, with 35 goals scored and 9 conceded. The team comes to this match after a loss outside with Progreso by (4-3). In the last 10 home matches for all competitions, Peñarol has won 8 and tied 2. Defensive consistency has not been their best feature, as they have conceded goals in 4 of the last 5 matches for this competition. In their away matches there is a tendency for goals, since 21 of the last 24 matches have ended with Over 1,5 goals and 16 out of 24 have ended with Over 2,5 goals. In 15 matches, they suffered the first goal 4 times and only managed 1 comeback.

The Peñarol arrives for this last round needing to win and that Atlético Tucumán loses to advance towards the eighth finals of the Copa Libertadores. The home team has a good quality defense, which is the second best of Group 3, with 5 goals in 5 games, while the attack leaves to be desired, scored only 6 goals and is the worst in the group and showed its inefficiency in the last game, in which few opportunities he created and failed to score. The Peñarol is usually strong in his stadium, where he won the 2 games he played here and it should be noted that in both the victory was by 2 goals difference, having scored 5 goals and suffered only 1, so playing at home, As in the game this Thursday, it is a very difficult team to face in this type of situation. For the match against The Strongest, coach Leonardo Ramos will not be able to count on the Red side, on account of a suspension.

The Strongest:

The away team is currently in the 4 th position, with 3 points won, after 1 win and 4 losses. In the penultimate match, they lost in an away match against Atlético Tucumán, by (3-0). In the last match, they lost in a home match against Libertad, by (1-3). This is a team that usually makes good use of the home advantage, stronger with the help of its supporters, since in the last 30 matches they register 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses in away matches, with 14 goals scored and 26 conceded; against 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses at their stadium, with 38 goals scored and 13 conceded. The team comes to this match after a home win over Oriente Petrolero by (5-1). In the last 10 away matches for all competitions, The Strongest won 3 and lost 7.

In this competition, he has lost the last 4 matches he has played. They have not been very strong defensively, since they have suffered goals in 4 of the last 5 matches for this competition. In 15 games, he never got the comeback in the 7 games in which he suffered the first goal.

The Strongest is doing a campaign well below the expected in the Copa Libertadores, comes from 4 consecutive defeats and comes to this last game already eliminated, in addition to having minimal chances of staying in third place and go to the next Copa Sudamericana , because he needs to recover a difference of 9 goals for his next opponent. The visiting team presents serious problems, both in the offensive and in the defensive sector, as they scored only 3 goals, being the worst attack of Group 3, and suffered 11 goals, having the worst defense. These numbers help explain the terrible campaign here. Playing as a visitor, as in the game on Thursday, The Strongest lost the 2 games he played, both by 3×0, leaving many spaces and creating very few chances of goal, being a team that finds enormous difficulties in this type of situation. For the match against Peñarol, the coach must repeat the initial eleven he has been using in the last rounds, since he has all the holders at his disposal.