Another forecast for the penultimate day of the League 123. We are going to the game that will face Mallorca against Granada, two teams in the upper area of the competition and in which I enter a victory or draw of the local team (Mallorca).
Mallorca is 5th with 67 points. He is currently in positions to play the playoffs of promotion to first division. With no option to reach the first two positions (direct promotion) you must maintain your position if you do not want to be out of the fight for promotion since the 7th place (Deportivo de la Coruña) is only 3 points (64 points) and a defeat could condemn them … From Málaga (4th) to Deportivo (7th) there are only 4 points so, in the absence of two days, a stumble of one of them, is losing a lot of options of play off. Let’s go with numbers: Mallorca, at home, has 48 points in 20 games (very good numbers that make it the second best local team in the category). With 34 goals in favor (team plus goalscorer) and only 11 goals received (second team least conceded). Numbers that argue the pick. But there is more, the Mallorca does not lose at home since December last year and, since that defeat has added 11 wins and 1 draw … as the best local.
The Granada occupies the 2nd position with 75 points. Great season of the Andalusian team. At this time he would have direct promotion but he has 4 points to the third classified (Albacete) and he still does not have the mathematically assured subchampionship. However, he has a good chance of winning it, because even if he loses in Mallorca, he would keep that position and, on the last day, he could ratify it to his public by beating Alcorcón (a team that is no longer playing). As long as the Albacete wins its two games because otherwise it would give the direct ascent to Granada regardless of what the Andalusian team does. I comment all the above to explain the “lower pressure” that visitors will have because of those 4 points of advantage with the third and having assured (in the worst case) to play the playoff of promotion. As a visitor, the Granada has good numbers: 33 points in 20 games (second best away team), 23 goals in favor and 15 against.
It will be a match between two very even teams but the localia of Mallorca (last match against their public) and the numbers in their stadium inclines me to that double chance in their favor. A tie would also be a result that would benefit both since it would allow them to continue depending on themselves on the last day to achieve their goal (Mallorca play off and Granada direct promotion). Covering a 66% probability and a quota above 1.50 I see value. Caution because, as you know, here you need other variables and, let it be green …
