Alcorcon vs UCAM Murcia BETTING TIPS / 08.01.2017

A very likely market to play in favor of the 0-0 to the rest is the Second Division. The teams in this category are not only more prone to under 90 minutes, but the number of games that finish without goals to the rest is much higher than could be in the First Division.

A totally enlightening fact is what happened yesterday, where four games of this category were played and absolutely all finished 0-0 at halftime. Of course it is not habitual a percentage of 0-0 to the rest so high, nevertheless yes that they occur with much assiduity.

I have analyzed the remaining matches of the day and I have come to the conclusion that the party most likely to give the 0-0 to the rest is this Alcorcón vs UCAM Murcia. The data on which I base are the following:

In Alcorcón matches there has been at least one goal in 9 of 19 occasions, being the second team that favors the under 0.5 to rest with statistics of 47.37% over and 52.63% under.

As a local, the numbers are even more favorable to the under. In only two occasions of 9 has produced at least one goal, while in the other 7 the match has gone 0-0. That is 22.22% in favor of over and 77.78% in favor of under.

The UCAM Murcia, for its part, has tied at zero to the break in 7 games of 18, which supposes 61.11% in favor of the over and 38.89% in favor of under. If we analyze home games, UCAM Murcia has tied without goals to rest in 5 games of 9 which is a 44.44% in favor of over and 55.56% in favor of under.

If we add all the data and divide it among four, we have 43.79% in favor of over and 56,21% in favor of under. Therefore we could say that for this particular match and based on the statistics mentioned above, there is more chance of 0-0 ending the break than if there is a goal.

Does that mean that the betting houses will have put under the favorite? No, as I continue to maintain, bookies do not analyze this type of market and continue to give quotas similar to those of any other party. That is, 1.53 at over 0.5 and 2.37 in favor of under. However, in William Hill the share improves to 2.50, a whole number if we consider the statistical probability.

I think that a more logical fee and that has been put into analysis statistics, would be to set the under at 1.78 and the over at 2.28, so I see a lot of value to this bet.

However, we are talking about a single goal, so we can not put high stake no matter how much the statistic is on our side. Bet on her yes, but in moderation.

If you want more information about the study of over / under 0.5 to the rest that I am doing, do not hesitate to read my forecast for Eibar vs At. Madrid.