Will the exciting Hamburg derbies still be in the second division next season? At the moment we would probably not bet that HSV and FC St. Pauli 2020/2021 are represented in the same division. However, this assumption is not based solely on the envisaged and quite possible rise of the former Bundesliga dinosaur, but also on the fact that the Kiezkicker must continue to fear for relegation.
Five game days before the end of the current season, the Luhukay team’s lead on the relegation place is just five points. Accordingly, there is still a risk of a real disaster. It will be all the more important for the North Germans to take points back to the Elbe on Friday evening. Before the game against Bochum against St. Pauli, however, the odds of the best bookmakers narrowly favor the host.
We agree with this assessment, referring above all to the recent VfL performances in our own stadium. The team of coach Thomas Reis won both home games after the compulsory break. In general, the Ruhrpottler remained unbeaten in four matches after the restart and thus improved to position ten in the classification.
Hamburg, on the other hand, are still the third weakest away team in the third division. As is known, the only success was achieved in the immediate vicinity of the HSV. In view of the factors mentioned, we believe it is the best option to give a bet on the home win between Bochum and St. Pauli. Then, at the latest, the blue-whites could put a tick behind the issue of relegation battle. Pauli, on the other hand, would continue to tremble.
Bochum:
VfL Bochum has seen some relaxation in recent weeks. While the kickers from the Ruhr were at the beginning of March on the 15th place with only three points ahead of the relegation, the team of coach Thomas Reis got rid of almost all relegation worries with good results.
Although there are still five outstanding matches, the topic is not yet mathematically through, but it can be assumed that the blue-whites will no longer gamble away the current cushion from eight points to position 16. The sprayed optimism is anything but unfounded, because the former Bundesliga club has not yet suffered a defeat since the resumption of play.
Two goalless draws abroad with the relegation candidates Karlsruhe and Nuremberg as well as two remarkable home wins against Heidenheim (3: 0) and Holstein Kiel (2: 1) underline the good form, which on Friday before the duel Bochum vs. St. Pauli should definitely be considered for the forecast. With a similar performance as last, the Reis-Elf should continue its positive trend.
The defensive in particular has gained tremendous stability after the interruption. If VfL has actually been one of the league’s shooting galleries so far this season, goalkeeper Reimann only had to reach once in the four games after the break. Offensive, the Bochum were already part of the absolute elite throughout the game year. Even better: No other second division club scored more goals at home than the Ruhrpottler.
Thanks to the 33 goals, the home team won five home wins. Seven games ended in a draw, and only three times did the Reis-Elf, who have a good mix of talented and experienced players, leave the field as losers. With the downward pressure and the joy of playing from the last home games, the Bochum vs. St. Pauli odds on VfL an interesting value.
In terms of personnel, however, there was also one or two bad news to report. In particular, Danny Blum’s failure, who is struggling with a calf strain, weighs heavily. Ulrich Bapoh, Sebastian Maier, Saulo Decarli and Simon Zoller are also injured. Top scorer Ganvoula will therefore especially hope for the support of his director Robert Zulj.
St. Pauli:
At the moment, the guests can only envy their competitors for the calm that prevails in Bochum before the 30th matchday. The fear of relegation is omnipresent in Hamburg, even though after the successful start to the restart against Nuremberg (1-0) we almost felt safe. Three game days, two points and just one goal scored, the Kiezkicker slipped to 13th place.
At least the fact that the Luhukay team will tackle the remaining five games with a lead of five points in 16th place is positive. Based on the 35 points already collected, a threesome might be enough to pull your head out of the loop again in the end.
Those responsible will not be satisfied with the season again. The expectations are very different, especially since the Paulians in isolated matches indicated the existing potential beyond doubt. The Kiezkicker contested the best away game by far with the city rivals in the Volksparkstadion. Similar to the first leg, the smaller of the two Hamburg second division teams once again had the upper hand.
It was also the only foreign win in the season so far. Half of all matches in opposing stadiums were lost (seven out of 14). The goal difference of 14:25 also indicates that the team of experienced coach Jos Luhukay has enormous problems away from home. This is one of the reasons why a forecast on VfL seems more realistic between Bochum and St. Pauli.
Kevin Lankford, Daniel Buballa, Christian Joe Conteh and long-term injured Markus Ziereis are not available on Friday evening. The rest of the squad have set themselves the goal of making a huge step towards relegation and continuing the impressive series of three away wins in a row in Bochum.
