Real Madrid – Napoli Prediction & Preview and Betting Tips (15.02.2017)

Prediction for Real Madrid – Napoli

Over 2.5 goals and both mark @ 1.90

Round of 16 of the Champions League against Real Madrid and Napoli.
Bet on “More than 2.5 goals and both score”.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid come to this party as an undisputed league leader. Having 2 games pending, he takes 1 point to Barcelona and 3 to Sevilla. Although his league situation is good, leads a bad streak in 2017 totals 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses (both in league and in cup). In league, thrashed 5-0 to the Granada but, after this very good result, has had several very adjusted parties. He lost 2-1 in the League after eliminating Sevilla (with a 3-0 in the first leg and 3-3 on lap), won with a very tight result for Malaga (2-1) and won 3-0 Real society. Between half of the game against Malaga and Real Sociedad, played the quarterfinal against Celta, losing the 1-2 leg and the tie drawing 2-2.

Real Madrid defensively is leaving a lot to be desired. Although for this match recovers Marcelo and Pepe (will have to see in what conditions are both for this match) Real Madrid has suffered behind both with them and without them. Marcelo, although offensively noticeable in Real Madrid, defensively has been fail and Pepe has not been remarkable. In several games, rival teams came to the front of the Real Madrid area as if they were walking quietly at home. This, along with Real Madrid hurt him on the side (Danilo horrible – and we will see if he plays – and Marcelo defensively was not at a great level and I doubt that he will be again after the injury), he comes that neither painted the Naples , Whose only problem is that, sometimes, it fails to materialize the opportunities it gets.

In 6 of his 11 home matches, there were Over 2.5 and both scored. In all the matches of Real Madrid like local, has always been fulfilled at least one of the two options, or Over 2,5 or Both marked. Of the 5 cases that were red, we found 2 draws to 1 (against Eibar and Villarreal) and 3 victories with Over 2,5 without conceding a goal (against Leganés 3-0, who is 17 with 18 points and 8 goals to Away from home in 11 games, against Granada by 5-0, who is 19 with 13 points and 9 goals away from home in 11 games, and 3-0 against Real Sociedad, 5 with 38 points, 15 goals to Away from home in 10 games). We found that, of the 5 reds, 2 were by the minimum in games with many occasions. Against Villarreal in the min.48 already went 1-1 and, before the Eibar, the 2 goals were marked in the first part. We see that he has not only conceded a home goal against 2 of the worst teams in the league, who are fighting for salvation and have an average scorer of less than 1 goal per game, with the exception of Real Sociedad. However, this exception had chances to score at least 1 goal (making it clear that the Madrid leaves to be desired back).

I see it unlikely that Real Madrid will be able to leave this match without conceding a goal. Also, I see very complicated that, if they do not try to score, the party ends up with less than 3 goals.

Napoli

The Naples is 3º with 48 points in the Calcium (to 2 of the Rome, 9 of the Juventus and with a advantage of 5 and 6 points on the 4º and 5º equipment). He usually has 55 goals in favor and 26 against, while away from home he has 27 goals in favor and 12 against in 11 games. In 7 of his 11 away games this bet was green. Despite the reds, the matches of Naples are often full of chances, most of them red against teams with a more defensive style. The Naples, when it has total control of the party, if it does not open soon the can, it costs him very much to score goal. Also, away from home in Calcio, it is not so easy to score goal.
In Champions, this bet was green in his 4 of the 6 matches (being red at home against Dinamo Kiev 0-0 and away from home against Besiktas 1-1). Although as a local, except for the red, two left over, outside the house were more fair. It is clear that, what we can not do either, is to avoid the problems behind Madrid or its offensive potential.

The Naples is pure speed, counting on players like Callejón, Mertens, Hamsik and Insigne. His biggest problem is that his players lack a little punch, going more by sprints and scoring enough goals by the number of times they reach the area rival and the danger that come with these occasions. The worst thing about Naples is its defense. Not that it is horrible or make big mistakes, but with 26 goals against in 23 games, we are talking about a team that has difficulty keeping their goal to 0.

Adding Cup and Champions we find the following. In the 6 games of the group stage of Champions this bet was green. Even emphasizing that, in the party that played in the Bernabeu against Legia, the 5 shots between the 3 sticks to Keylos Navas were clear chances of goal, not forgetting that away from home were 3-3, bordering the ridiculous.
In Copa del Rey he has played 6 matches. Not to mention the play-off against the Cultural Leonesa (I do not think it’s a relevant match, it has also scored in both matches), it has played 4 relevant matches. In 3 of these 4 matches this bet was green, being clear against Celta de Vigo and Sevilla in the return matches. The only match that was not green, was 3-0 in the first leg against Sevilla.