Benfica – Dortmund Prediction & Preview and Betting Tips (14.02.2017)

Prediction for Benfica – Dortmund

Both will mark: Yes @ 1.70

Round of 16 of the Champions League against Benfica and Borussia Dortmund.
Bet on “Both Marcan”.

Benfica

Betting before the match that will both play the weekend (addition to a game that will play Wednesday Dortmund in the German Cup). I assume that there will be no relevant changes in the league day of both teams. Even so, I recommend waiting for you both to follow the pick and if you are going to make the bet, in case you prefer to wait in case there are any injuries of relevance (even if Aubameyang could be injured in Dortmund, I do not think the bet would be affected in excess). After this long preview, we go with the pick itself.

Benfica is the leader of the Primera Liga (the first division of Portugal). He leads 48 points in 20 games (15V-3E-2D, 44 goals in favor and 12 goals against), taking him 1 point ahead of Porto (second) and a wider advantage over the third and fourth, Sporting Lisbon Which has 38 points) and Sporting Braga (which carries 37 points). As local leads 8 wins and 2 draws (28 goals in favor and 6 goals against). In only two of these parties scored both teams. However, we must bear in mind that the Portuguese league is among the lowest level in the “Top European”, below in recent years even the French league, there is a big difference between the best teams and the teams of the Middle-low zone.

In the Champions League, Benfica added only 8 points in a very loose group, whose best team was clearly the Naples, apart from Besiktas and Dinamo Kiev. As local lost 1-2 against Napoli, won 1-0 to Dynamo Kiev and drew 1-1 against Besiktas. As we see, before teams of higher level, the thing changes a lot. Benfica conceded 10 goals in all 6 group-stage games, a much better average than in the league (0.6 goals per league match, 1.67 goals per game in the Champions League).

Dortmund

Dortmund are suffering a lot this season. He is 4º with 34 points (to 1 point of the 3º, that classifies directly for Champions) and away of the one to head (8 of the second, Leipzig, and 12 of Bayern of Munich) being tied to points with Hoffenheim (5º) and With little advantage over the rest of the pursuers (1 point on the 6th and 2 on the 7th). He has only lost 3 of 19, his problem is that he can not kill the games, totaling a total of 7 draws.
Away from home is where he is suffering the most, as a logal remains undefeated (with 6 wins and 3 draws), leading 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses (with 20 goals in favor and 16 against).
Defensively is worse than past seasons, although offensively it maintains in a similar average and is only surpassed by the Bayern of Munich.

Of these 10 matches away from home, both teams scored in 7 of them. This makes it clear that defensive is no longer the team that was Borussia Dortmund (at least away from home, since, as a local, has only conceded 5 goals in 9 games).
In Champions, as most of you know, was first in group, above the Madrid by 2 points. Although Dortmund was likely to have won by points difference, the key was in Madrid’s incredible away draw with Legia (the cinderella of the group, which only had 4 points, that tie and their victory against Sporting, a team that Thrashed Dortmund both at home and away from home – being that party that has gone down in history with 12 goals, remaining at 8-4).
Away from home, Dortmund were 2-2 against Real Madrid, 1-2 against Sporting and 0-6 against Legia.
It did not fit the goal that was clearly easier to keep the empty goal, the Legia, and scored and scored goal to the teams that if they could make opposition.

Direct meeting between Benfica – Dortmund

I cheer up with a medium-low Stake for this match. Although in an eliminatory, the teams come out with a different mentality with which they go in a League game or Group stage, both teams have to have a clear goal for this first leg. For Dortmund must be essential to score goal, something that would facilitate much the tie even losing the match. While for the Benfica the tie passes for winning at home, so they should go for the match.

(This may be one of the dangers of the game, although personally if Benfica does not win this game, they will have practically no options to pass the round – since Dortmund is a great team when they play at home – In this case a goal from Dortmund in the first 60 minutes would be vital not to end up seeing Red, as it would force Benfica to attack.

I do not like the offensive potential of Benfica, which although in league has a great goal scorer, in Champions has shown that this is another story. However, the fact that the Dortmund defensively is weak outside the home, encourages me to think that the game can finish at least 1-1. In this case, and although I usually do it on a regular basis, I stay with the Both score and I do not go with the “More than 2.5 goals and Both Score”, essentially because, being a tie, teams can more And the party can have loose minutes with little action (or Benfica come out with the approach quoted previously). Therefore, I prefer to ensure in this case with the both mark, which would give us the green with 1-1.