Prediction for Atl. Madrid – Chelsea
Winner (tie invalid bet) Athletic. @ 1.53
Good morning to all. We are going with the Champions League game next week, specifically with Atletico-Chelsea on Wednesday.
I think Atlético will win, although I expect a tough match and fairly even, so I cover in case of a tie. The reasons for the forecast are as follows:
1. Atletico has caught cruising speed and is giving very good feelings, in its own way. That is, typical matches in which it seems that nothing happens but I put a goal when you least expect it and if I have seen you I do not remember. Let’s see if you can tie me now.
2. The history of Atleti as a venue in Champions since Cholo is incredible. I do not have the exact data, but it was something like that in more than 20 games with Cholo in the bench of the Calderón in champions, Atleti left its door to 0 around 75-80% of the time. And there has been in the last years Barça twice (in both he left 0) Bayern, Chelsea (both 0 also) and Madrid twice (the first left him 0 and last year he famous Isco goal after Benzema play). This leaves us a scenario in which it is very but very difficult for the Atleti to lose as a local in Champions, so the draw and therefore the return of the bet we have almost assured.
3. As a consequence of the above, in all this time with Cholo on the bench, Atleti only lost as a local two years ago against Benfica (1-2 with two goals by Nico Gaitán for Benfica), in a match that much less deserved to lose. Chelsea are a very good team and a great coach, but if you look at clashes between teams of the European elite, it is difficult to see victories visitors and usually impose the field factor. I suppose Chelsea will not be upset for the draw so I do not think it will go to deguello, however the Atleti will want to secure the 9 points home, win the Qarabag out and after the draw in Rome and with another in London would be first group. So I see a match a few goals, 0-0, 1-0,1-1,2-0 at most, so a -2.5 goals would not be bad to 1.60 or so, but I prefer to make this other bet , I see it more secure.
Finally, an argument that pulls back a bit:
All the fearsome numbers of the Atleti like local that I mentioned previously were in the Calderón. Now he plays in a different field and sometimes influences. As an example, Tottenham at White Hart Lane was fearsome, and last year played Champions at Wembley and made it fatal being fourth in his group. Still, I still see the favorite Atleti, so we go with Stake 2. Thank you very much and greetings.
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