AS Roma – FC Porto Prediction & Picks (12.02.2019)



Good Morning. Finally comes the decisive phase of the Champions. And, how could it be otherwise, we go for the eighths. We started with the game between Rome and Porto, betting on a handicap of fouls +2 for Roma. For those who are still clueless, Porto can not commit 3 more fouls than Italians. If there are two more, bet null.

I think that to place this line Luckia has only taken into account the fouls committed by both teams in this competition, which are 15.7 for Porto and 11.5 for Roma. However, let’s dig a little deeper into these numbers, since it is a handicap and not a total of fouls:

It is true that Roma commits 11.5 fouls per game. But his rivals only commit 10.5. You commit more than you receive. In Italy, more of the same. Commit 11.82 and receive 10.55. Statistics are also favorable when playing at home. In Champions he commits one more foul than he receives (10.7 for 9.7) and in the Italian league he commits 12.09 and receives 11.91.

El Porto, meanwhile, in Champions commits 1.2 more than they receive, so it is an acceptable amount for our handicap. Commit 15,7 and receive 14,5. In the Portuguese league, the Porto receives more fouls than those committed, with 16.4 in favor and 15.7 against.

It is also true that the groups favored these numbers. While Roma shared a group with Real Madrid, Plzen and CSKA Moscow, Porto did with Schalke, Galatasaray and Lokomotiv, all of them in the top 10 of all fouls in their matches.

Against more or less powerful teams that have faced Roma lately, we would have almost everything green (Milan, Fiorentina, Napoli, Inter, Juve or Real Madrid).

© Andrey

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