EVENT: 2nd Division of Spain, Ponferradina v Girona. Day 16
Party of the Spanish Second Division where I think this card index should be exceeded. The yellow per player is worth 10 points and the red 25. The maximum score per player is 25 points (direct yellow + red).
Sixteenth league day where Ponferradina occupies the eighth position and faces the seventh at home, which has one more point. Only this circumstance should already generate tension.
As we can see, the total joint average generates 6 cards / match.
If we analyze the times that we overcome the pick with each of the teams we have that, on the part of Girona, it has been achieved in 11 of 15 meetings, which generates a probability of 73.33%.
The one of the Ponferradina is much more, since this pick has been surpassed in only 6 of 15, generating a probability of 40%.
Even so, the joint disaggregated probability gives us almost 57%.
Finally, if we analyze the tendency of the matches that Ponferradina and Girona have played at home and away respectively, we have that in the games of Girona away from home the pick has been exceeded in 6 of 7 matches with an average of 45/7 = 6.43.
On the part of the Ponfe, analyzing the home matches, the pick has been surpassed in 2 of 8 with an average of 44/8 = 5.5.
What catches my attention is that although in the Ponfe home games only one green has been seen in only 2 of 8 matches, the average is still relatively favorable with respect to our forecast. 3 cards come in their field in the last match and the trend clearly tells us that we are going to see at least 5 in this event; To this we have to add that a set with the numbers that the Catalan team of Girona handles on cards visits.
Honestly, in this minimum game we should see 50 points per card. Therefore, this forecast has a lot of value adding statistics, trend and current situation of the league table. We are likely to see a red one too.