Prediction for Dijon – Caen
Under (-) 0.5 goals (first time) @ 3.00
We continue with more predictions in which we are hunting for draws to zero at break, a very likely result as we have been demonstrating these weeks ago in my study that is increasingly giving better results.
In any case this week we have analyzed the first French division that comes from playing an interweaved day in which there were three goals without goals (PSG vs Lille, Metz vs Dijon and Angers vs Rennes), of the three my study would only have marked the PSG Vs Lille as possible probable 0-0 to the break which is what I would have wagered if I had applied my study to the previous day of the French league.
Regardless of what I could and could not do, we will focus on what we will do and is nothing more than betting on the 25th day of Ligue 1 where we see that virtually all parties are unlikely to finish without goals , However we know that there are always some that ends with this result. In fact after 24 days there has only been one day (Day 9) in which all the parties recorded at least one goal at halftime, in the rest there has always been at least a 0-0 and in up to three days (day 5, day 7th and 23rd) the number of scoreless away draws was seven out of ten, 70%!
Therefore, although the probability of under is somewhat low (43.16%) I will enter this match basically because it is the match of the whole day with the most likely to occur and we know that almost certainly one of these ten matches Of the 25th day of Ligue 1 will finish without goals.
That yes, I would like to point out that if I am to enter this bet it is basically for the fee that Bet365 offers us that it is a lady fee 3, much higher than the 2.32 fee that I estimate logic for this match. At a fee 2.50 or less I would not enter this bet.
In any case, the data that make me bet on 0-0 at half-time are as follows:
– The Dijon has tied 0 to the rest 9 games of 24, that’s 37.50% of the matches this season, while there have been goals in the other 62.50%
-The Dijon playing as a local has tied 0 to the rest 5 games of 12 played, that’s 41.66% of the matches, while there have been goals in the other 58.34% of the matches.
-The Caen, for its part, has tied 0 to the rest 10 games of 23, also 43.47% of the games that has played this season, while there has been at least one goal in 56.53%.
-El Caen, playing as a visitor has tied 0 to rest 6 games of 12 plays, that’s 50% of the games while there has been at least one goal in the other 50% of the matches.
If we add the odds of over and divide them by four we get a probability of 56.84% over and 43.16% under.
With these numbers they would have to give us an over share of 1.77 and under 2.32. Instead the bookmakers are paying us 1.40 over and 3.00 under. Therefore, although I insist that the most normal is that the bet is lost, I think the odds are exaggeratedly high, I see a lot of value and this is why I bet on Bet365.
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