Darmstadt – Dusseldorf Prediction & Picks (02.04.2018)

Match that closes the twenty-eighth day of the German second division, the Bundesliga 2. They face Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98, leader and penultimate ranked respectively. A priori it surprises that with the positions so different that both occupy in the table the quotas for the simple victory of each team are so equal. At this moment, according oddsportal the average quota of the local victory is 2’65 and that of the visitor victory 2’63.

I guess the reason that justifies that uncertainty is the most recent results of the local team. In the last five days, Darmstadt has won one game, drawn three and lost one. The last two results are both worthy ties to a goal against the second, Nuremberg, and the fourth classified, Ingolstadt. For its part the Düsseldorf does not go through a bad patch at all, with three wins, one draw and one defeat in the last five games, but it is true that two of his last three starts have ended in defeat, to Regensburg (fifth place) and Berlin (eleventh).

Another possible cause that explains the equality that the bookmakers presuppose is that Düsseldorf can afford a trip, because it would maintain the lead with a distance of six points over its immediate pursuer, Nuremberg. For Darmstadt, however, tomorrow it is vital to add points that allow him to cut the eight points that separate him from permanence.

In the chapter of highs and lows I can only say that Darmstadt has two relevant absences, the striker (former Schalke) Felix Platte and the defense (occasional midfielder) Peter Niemeyer. Düsseldorf recover their goalkeeper Michael Rensing.

As far as goals are concerned, in all the leagues we find a considerable difference between those at the top, who score a lot and fit a few goals, and those at the bottom, where the opposite happens. But in the Bundesliga 2 this difference between the two ends of the table is greatly reduced. In the twenty-seven games played, the leader, Düsseldorf, has scored forty-six goals and has conceded thirty-four. And the penultimate, Darmstadt, has scored thirty-seven and has fit forty-two. But if we look at the location, the differences are reduced even more. In his stadium the Darmstadt, local tomorrow, has scored twenty-one goals and has conceded twenty-two, while on his travels Düsseldorf, morning visitor, has scored twenty-one goals and has fit seventeen. The figures are very similar.

But more than the quantity we are interested in the regularity of the goals. And here the figures are spectacular. Darmstadt has scored in twelve of the thirteen games played at home (92%) and Düsseldorf has done the same in eleven of its thirteen outings (85%). And fit? As Darmstadt has scored goals in eleven of the thirteen games at home (85%), while Düsseldorf has conceded nine of its thirteen trips (69%).

In both of the thirteen games played, both teams scored. And two of the three games in which they did not score both are already quite far, since they correspond to the first two days. Our forecast is met 77% of the time.

In eight of the thirteen starts, both teams scored. Our forecast is met by 62%.

And there is not much more to comment. It only remains to trust that tomorrow the same tone will be maintained at the Stadion am Böllenfalltor and we will see a match with goals on both sides.