Southampton vs West Brom BETTING TIPS / 31.12.2016

I continue with my particular study on over and under (0.5) in the first half, this time analyzing English Premier League matches that will be played over the next three days.

For this study I have analyzed the following commitments:
Southampton vs Tottenham
Hull City vs Everton
Burnley vs Sunderland
Chelsea vs Stoke
Leicester vs West Ham
Manchester Utd vs Middlesbrough
Southampton vs West Brom
Swansea vs Bournemouth
Liverpool vs Manchester City

What I have analyzed basically is the number of times these teams get an over 0.5 in the first half and in how many games the shock goes 0-0 to the break. I have differentiated between when they have played locally and when they have played as a visitor and after adding the values ​​and establishing a probability I have determined, based on the statistics, which are the games in which the over 0.5 in the first half is more Probable and in which it is less improbable.

So, my study has indicated that of the parties previously exposed, the shock that is most likely to end 0-0 at the break is Southampton vs West Brom, where the probability of under 0.5 is given to rest Is 55.09% compared to the 44.91% chance of being over 0.5 in the first half. With these numbers, it would be logical to think that the odds would be even, but again, we see that bookmakers do not usually have the statistics in mind and set general odds (1.44 in favor of over 0.5 and 2.62 a Favor of under).

Analyzing a little the numbers we see that Southampton has seen as in their games there has been at least one goal to rest in 58.82% of the matches, compared to 41.18% of the matches where the result has been 0 -0 at rest. However, if we look only at Southampton matches as a local, the statistics are clearly favorable to Under, as 62.50% of the games that Southampton have played at home in the league this season have gone 0-0 To the rest, whereas only in the 37.50% of the occasions there has been at least one goal in those parties.

His rival, the West Brom, sees in their games there are goals to rest on 50% of the occasions, that is, exactly half, however, if you play at home, these numbers are more favorable, even more so, To under, because 66.67% of the games that play at home has been given 0.5 to rest, compared to 33.33% of those matches where the over has been given.

I think it is clear that the odds of over occurring are lower than under (to the numbers above I refer), and therefore I consider a bet with much value this bet of under 0.5 in the first half in this Southampton v West Bromwich to a 2.62 share in William Hill.